Upstate NY’s lake effect snow season could start late next week

Syracuse, N.Y. — There’s a chance Upstate New York could see its first flakes of lake effect snow late next week, but there are plenty of caveats.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says a powerful storm is expected to develop east of the Rockies early next week and then move toward the Great Lakes. That storm is likely to bring high winds to the eastern U.S. and “increase the potential for lake effect snowfall in the Great Lakes,” the center said.
Much of Upstate in the “slight risk” category for heavy snow Thursday, Nov. 21 through Saturday, Nov. 23, according to the climate center. Slight means a 20% chance.
The odds are higher for Western New York and Tug Hill, the traditional hotspots for lake effect snow. Those areas are in the moderate risk of heavy snow, or 40%.
But meteorologists are urging caution. While the Great Lakes are warm and wide open, the various models forecasters consult don’t agree on how cold the air will be blowing across the lakes next week.
It’s also too early to tell what direction the wind might blow and therefore which areas could see lake effect snow, which often falls in intense but narrow bands.
“You’re still 10 days out and a lot could change,” said Mike Kistner, a meteorologist in the weather service’s Binghamton office. “It depends on the evolution of the weather pattern and whether that cold air drops southward from Canada.”
Lake effect snow is generated when cold air blows across relatively warm open waters, like the Great Lakes. Snow bands are very hard to predict more than a couple of days ahead of time.
Still, Kitsner noted, this is the time of year when lake effect snow usually ramps up because the lakes are warm and ice-free.
“It is the mostly likely time period, late November and December, when the water is still warm,” he said. “Anytime you get cold air dipping down you have the potential for lake effect.”
If the cold air doesn’t materialize next week, Upstate could see rain instead of snow. Either way, high winds are expected for much of the region.