DFL incumbent increases margin of victory by one vote in close Minnesota House race

SHAKOPEE, Minn. — Incumbent DFL Rep. Brad Tabke increased his margin of victory by one vote, which brings his total lead to 15 votes, according to the preliminary results from a recount Thursday of his state House district covering Shakopee.
But the election is likely far from over.
The race between him and GOP challenger Aaron Paul in House District 54A is the closest in the state and its outcome has outsize influence in determining the balance of power in the chamber. Tabke’s victory puts the House at a 67-67 tie between Republicans and Democrats, prompting leaders to explore a power-shoring agreement. But if Paul prevailed, it would give the Republicans a one-seat majority.
The county canvassing board will have to certify the results — and make a determination on four challenged ballots — at its Monday meeting. Then candidates have seven days to contest the election results in court, which could further prolong the process.
The margin on Election Day was 14 votes, which was enough to trigger a taxpayer-funded recount; after Thursday’s recount, Tabke was winning by 15.  Election judges on Thursday hand counted each of the 22,000 ballots precinct by precinct, with representatives of each party looking on.  There was an equal number of party representatives and attorneys in the room observing the count and who could challenge certain ballots for “under votes” or “over votes” based on how someone marked their ballot.
Separately, there are questions and concerns swirling about potential outstanding ballots. Julie Hanson, elections manager, identified a discrepancy of 21 more absentee voting records than the number of ballots actually counted in Shakopee. That’s ignited intense scrutiny and prompted calls for more transparency.
According to a news release from Scott County, there is an ongoing investigation into this matter. Hanson did not share any more details Thursday.
“I don’t have a comment on that today. What I can tell you is we are still looking into that. We are still investigating—that is still in process,” Hanson told reporters.
A lawsuit could be looming. House Republican Leader Lisa Demuth said in a statement that her caucus would pursue “every legal option available” to “ensure the integrity of results in District 54A.”
“While the recount has concluded, serious questions still remain about the 21 ballots that remain unaccounted for,” Demuth wrote. “With the recount results showing a final margin smaller than the number of potentially missing ballots, it is impossible to certify the election unless or until Scott County can determine what happened, prove chain of custody if the ballots are located, and guarantee that there was not malicious activity that led to 20 ballots being removed or destroyed.”
Next week, there will also be a recount in House District 14B in Sherburne County, where DFL Rep. Dan Wolgamott leads GOP candidate Sue Ek by 191 votes. There was an error uploading the results to the secretary of state’s website, county officials said, that prompted questions.
This story is developing and will be updated